Ripple prices registered a February opening-range high at resistance early in the month with the pullback starting to lose steam just ahead of confluence support. We’re on the lookout for a possible exhaustion low heading into the March open as price continues to hold within the confines of the broader uptrend.
XRP/USD Daily Price Chart (Log)
Technical Outlook: Ripple prices have been in consolidation after breaking below confluence support last week at the 100-day moving average. The cryptocurrency has continued to trade within the confines of this ascending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly lows with the lower parallel now converging on the 61.8% retracement at 8230– look for support there with our bullish invalidation level steady at thee 2018 low-day close at 7600.
Daily confluence resistance stands at the 1.22 handle where the 50-line converges on the 23.6% retracement and the monthly opening-range high. A breach there would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with such a scenario targeting 1.6177.
XRP/USD 240min Price Chart (Log)
Notes: A closer look at Ripple price action further highlights this key support zone with price consolidating below basic trendline resistance extending off the late-month high. A breach higher targets initial objectives at the 100-day moving average ~1.0630s backed by key resistance at 1.2203-1.2547.
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Bottom line: From a trading standpoint I’ll favor long-entries on a move into slope support near 8230s OR on a break & retest of trendline resistance as support. Ultimately a breach/close above the monthly opening-range highs would needed to fuel the next leg higher. A break below 7600 would likely see accelerated losses in Ripple prices with such a scenario targeting the 200-day moving average around ~6350.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy.
XRP/USD IG Client Sentiment
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Ripple- the ratio stands at +25.0 (96.2% of traders are long) – bearishreading
- Traders have remained net-long since Dec 25th; price has moved 64.2% lower since then
- Long positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 1.0% higher from last week
- Short positions areunchanged than yesterday and 2.9% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Ripple prices may continue to fall. Traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week andthe combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Ripple trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in XRP/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!
Other Setups in Play
– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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